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Creative Destruction through the  History of the DJIA, 1896-2010

 

 

 

 

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Latest Observations, February 2016

 

 

 

 

 

The Coffee Chronicles

"…so now, here I am, I’m hosting, and it’s all very well and good, but, honestly, I can’t wait to leave! In fact, I would say that one of the great pleasure in my life is leaving anywhere I am. Wherever I am, I want to get the hell out of there!"

 

Larry David Monologue, SNL, February 2016

 

 

Bristlecone Pines and Markets

Bristlecone Pines are long-lived and highly resilient to harsh weather and bad soils.

They generally compete poorly in less-than-harsh environments, making them hard to cultivate. They do very well, however, where most other plants cannot even grow.

What would be their equivalent in today's markets?

InvestmentOffice, February 2016

 

 

 

Quote

on the Fly

"The wealth effect from equities is limited. Most people do not own equities. More Americans own a cat than own equity directly, and less than half of the US population own equities even when indirect holdings like pension funds are included." Paul Donovan, "Economists are calm, even if equities are not", UBS, January 2016

 

 

January Barometer

A scatter plot for the S&P 500 January barometer with data ranging from 1951 to 2016.

Macroquant AG

Dr. Adrian Trapletti

January 2016

 

 

 

Careful, Mr. Market Has a Bad Temper
"If the Fed tries to keep rates at or near the levels they are currently, it will signal that after so many years of policy accommodation, the U.S. economy is still too fragile to absorb even marginal rate hikes. Such a response would be tantamount to what we – and many others – have been saying for a long time: that the interest rate emperor has no clothes."
Tad Rivelle , TCW, January 15, 2016

 

Quote

on the Fly

"Even the historic global epicenter of inflationary hypochondria, Germany, is now fighting deflation." James W. Paulsen, Some Thoughts on 2016, Economic and Market Perspective, Wells Capital Management, Inc. January 4, 2016

 

The Coffee Chronicles

"We always hired for intensity. Because our products were bizarre-enough, different enough, that we could train almost everything else."

 

Nolan Bushnell (Atari and Chuck E. Cheese's) on hiring Steve Jobs at Atari in 1974, Startup Grind, Jun 29, 2013

 

Taking the lord's name in vain: The impact of connected directors on 19th century British banks 
Explorations in Economic History,  Richard S. Grossman, Masami Imai, Volume 59, January 2016

 

 

Quote

on the Fly

"Such a “narrowing” of the market is a classic symptom of a lengthy rally — this one has lasted almost uninterrupted since 2009 — that is coming to an end." John Authers, "Equties: And then there were nine", Financial Times, January 3, 2016

 

A Year In Junk
"The most important outbreak or story of 2015 had to have been the junk bond reversal. It combined all the major elements of what investors and economic agents are both fearing and, at one point in the past anyway, hoping."
Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeffrey P. Snider, 31.12.2015

 

Resetting Production And Risk Perceptions
"2015 must be remembered as the year of divergence. The economy “unexpectedly” fell apart in broad-based and sustained fashion, yet Janet Yellen’s pedigree still counts far more in seemingly so many places"
Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeffrey P. Snider, 31.12.2015


Global Growth: The Underappreciated Gift That Keeps on Giving
"Take this widely acknowledged truism: Global growth is weak. This meme has constantly dominated headlines, not only this year, but throughout most of the current expansion."
Fisher Investments MarketMinder, 28/12/2015

The Chinese Currency in 2016: Bigger But Smaller
"China may enjoy a net current account surplus, but she has simultaneously been borrowing huge amounts of US dollars. In short, the peg to the US dollar has effectively dollarized China’s inflating domestic financial markets, and the scale of this bubble is eye-watering."
CrossBorder Capital, Michael Howell, December 15th 2015

 


How The Best of Intentions Destroyed Liquidity
"Milton Friedman once said that laws should be judged by their results rather than their intentions. Liquidity has disappeared, and it is directly attributable to the Volcker Rule."
Mauldin Economics, The 10th Man, Jared Dillian, December 10th 2015

 

The Apex Of Market Stupidity
"In the last five decades, there has never been less thinking going on in financial markets"
GaveKal, Charles Gave, December 8, 2015

 

It’s a Trap: Emperor Palpatine’s Poison Pill
Washington University in St. Louis, Zachary Feinstein, December 1st 2015

 

 

 

The Coffee Chronicles

“Do you enjoy being stupid? Oh yeah, I love being stupid. When we were writing Pyhton that was the word we always used: SILLY! We loved it when it was silly, sometime when it was naughty, but when it was silly! And it was always best when it meant nothing!"
John Cleese on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, November 2015


 

 

Out NOW in PDF!

 

Pension Funds Switzerland

2015 Edition

 

for institutional investors

 

 

 

 

 

Quote

on the Fly

"I don’t think there is any data precise enough to fine-tune a quarter of a point raise, that’s trivial (...) Well, if that’s all that’s keeping the economy going, we’ve got nothing going on!"
Wilbur Ross (Chairman of WL Ross & Co.), on Why He's Fighting the Fed, Bloomberg, October 20, 2015

 

 

The Fed DID NOT Save the Economy
"QE started in September 2008 and TARP was passed in October 2008, but the stock market fell an additional 40%. Mark-to-market accounting was changed in March/April 2009 and that’s when the stock market and economy bottomed."
First Trust Portfolios L.P., Brian S. Wesbury, October 12th 2015

 

Don’t Worry About Asset Bubbles
One of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current dilemmas is how to square its battle against deflation with investors’ fears of inflating asset bubbles. The former is part of the Fed’s mandate, the latter is not.
Oppenheimer Funds, Krishna Memani, September 3, 2015

 

The Challenge Confronting Banks
Once a company is as big as Apple, it needs to start eating up other industries in order to keep growing. Surely though, there are lower-hanging fruit than the auto industry? Most notably, there is the finance business.
Gavekal Dragonomics, Five Corners, Louis-Vincent Gave, April 2015

 

Simple balanced portfolio strategies since 1995
I can’t help but to admire these balanced portfolios. Simple and elegant in their asset allocation, easy to implement, highly liquid, transparent, low-cost; yet so profitable and consistent in their long-term results.
Investment Office, September 2015

 

Asset Class Returns in Swiss Francs since 1950
...with and without foreign currency hedging.
Hinder Asset Management, Dr. Alex Hinder, August 2015

 

 

 

Quote

on the Fly

"In a world of shadow banking, the abstraction of the market has become an economic reality unto itself. Today, paradox is the new paradigm, and volatility markets are a reflection of that duality."
Volatility: The Market Price of Uncertainty, Christopher R. Cole, Artemis Capital Management, 2014

 

Judging by real GDP, this has been the weakest of the five recent economic expansions...
...But, divide GDP by the labor force and the current expansion is not at all unusual
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Richard W. Fisher, March 2015

 

GDP per capita vs. GDP per working age population: United States vs. Japan
By only looking at GDP per capita one may easily miss the fact that Japan’s working-age population has been declining since the late 1990s.
The costs of deflation: a historical perspective, BIS Quarterly Review, March 2015

 

Applying Deep Learning to Enhance Momentum Trading Strategies in Stocks
Working Paper, Stanford University, Lawrence Takeuchi, Yu-Ying (Albert) Lee, December 12, 2013

 

Python-Esque “Growth vs Value”
Daily Speculations, Charles Pennington, August 27, 2015

 

Risk Appears Seriously Wounded
I have no idea if that means a top, but this market increasingly looks very, very tired if not seriously wounded.
Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeffrey P. Snider, August 21, 2015

 

 

 

The Coffee Chronicles

“Culturally, the Austro-German world of late nineteenth century was one of iconoclasts who became icons: Nietzsche in philosophy, Sigmund Freud in psychology, Albert Einstein in science, Richard Wagner in music, Mann in literature, and Max Weber in sociology."
A Mighty Fortress, Steven Ozment, Granta Publications,  2004 

 

 

Swiss Franc Lending in Europe
"Our estimates suggest that at the end of 2007, CHF 238 billion in Swiss franc denominated loans were outstanding in the euro area, and another CHF 122 billion in other European countries."
Swiss National Bank,  Martin Brown, Marcel Peter, and Simon Wehrmüller, February 2009

 

 

 

Quote

on the Fly

"It's also one of these prominently disrespected recoveries, no one has ever taken it seriously, people always had a complaint, but it keeps chugging along (...) It's like the most hated bull rally."
Bloomberg, "What'd You Miss?" The Current U.S. Recovery May Be the Longest Ever, Alix Steel and Joe Weisenthal, July 2, 2015.

 

 

American Tobacco and the Legacy of the Antitrust Laws
An original member of the 12 stocks that made up the original Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896 ceased to exist last month, though few people noticed. General Electric Co. is the only one of the original 12 members that remains in the DJIA.
Global Financial Data, Dr. Bryan Taylor, June 2014

 

 

 

Asset Management Switzerland 2015

NOW in PDF Version!

 

Asset & Wealth Managers

Market Characteristics
Macro Observations
Private Wealth
Investment Advisors

 

 

 

Strange Machinations
What to make of markets that are no longer on speaking terms with their fundamentals.
Guggenheim Partners, Scott Minerd, May 15, 2015

 

The Fed Isn’t Fueling This Typical Bull Market
“Quite high.” That is how Fed chair Janet Yellen described stock valuations last week. Cue the usual Fed rate hike speculation. One camp thinks a hike is overdue—that the Fed has been too accommodating, inflating asset bubbles across the land. Others fret a hike and argue the US economy needs continued “Fed support.” So who is right?
By Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, 15/05/2015

 

Quote

on the Fly

 

"...practically and analytically, a credit theory of money is possibly preferable to a monetary theory of credit."

Joseph Schumpeter, History of Economic Analysis

 

The Economic Cycle Is Maturing but Still Has Room to Run
The current economic expansion, now over 70 months old, is entering its mature phase, having already exceeded the average length of prior cycles of 57 months. However,
Guggenheim Partners, Scott Minerd, May 08, 2015

 

The New Physics of Leverage

"Since 2008 the predictions of doom by the goldistas have all been wrong. There has been no hyperinflation among any of the countries whose currencies can be cleared in large amounts through the central banks of the world. Gold has proven to be no more reliable a "store of value" than any other investment".
Stefan Jovanovich, Daily Speculations, 04/05/2015


Who trades with whom? Individuals, institutions, and returns
Journal of Financial Markets, Noah Stoffman, November 2014 
 
As Goes Switzerland…?
Here is a question worth weighing these days: If a strong currency is so devastating to stocks and economies—as many allege—why did stocks in a tiny, export-heavy economy not succumb to a nearly 20% shock appreciation?
By Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, 17/04/2015

 

 

 

The Coffee Chronicles

“I guess that everyone was offered The Godfather,” he recalls. “The only reason I got to do it was that I was cheap, I was young, I was Italian and I was a screenwriter. It was a total stroke of luck. I had no business having such an important movie. I was always on the verge of getting fired. They didn’t like my ideas.” Breakfast with the FT: Francis Ford Coppola, February 13, 2015

 

 

 

Quote

on the Fly

 

 

"What you need to understand is that all the usual rules of economic policy changed when financial crisis struck in 2008; we entered a looking-glass world, and we still haven’t emerged. In many cases, economic virtues became vices: Willingness to save became a drag on investment, fiscal probity a route to stagnation. And in the case of the Swiss, having a reputation for safe banks and sound money became a major liability."

Paul Krugman, The New York Times, January 2015 

 

 

Everything from this 1991 Radio Shack ad I now do with my phone
"There are 15 electronic gimzo type items on this page, being sold from America's Technology Store. 13 of the 15 you now always have in your pocket."

Trending Buffalo, Steve Cichon, January 14, 2014

 

 

 

 
 


 

 

Asset Management Switzerland 2015

 For professional investors only

 

 

 

 

 

Pension Funds Guide
Switzerland 2015

 For institutional investors only

pdf Version

 

 

Pension Funds Guide

Switzerland 2014

 For institutional investors only

pdf Version

 

 

 

Public Pension Funds

 

 

Corporate Pension Funds

 

 

Industry-Wide Funds

 

 

Multi-Employer Funds

 

 

 

Themes

 

Asia

Bonds

Bubbles and Crashes

Business Cycles
Central Banks

China

Commodities
Contrarian

Corporates

Creative Destruction
Credit Crunch

Currencies

Current Account

Deflation
Depression 

Equity
Europe
Financial Crisis
Fiscal Policy

Germany

Gloom and Doom
Gold

Government Debt

Historical Patterns

Household Debt
Inflation

Interest Rates

Japan

Market Timing

Misperceptions

Monetary Policy
Oil
Panics
Permabears
PIIGS
Predictions

Productivity
Real Estate

Seasonality

Sovereign Bonds
Systemic Risk

Switzerland

Tail Risk

Technology

Tipping Point
Trade Balance

U.S.A.
Uncertainty

Valuations

Yield