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Tactical Asset Allocation

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Selecting relevant market observations

 

Latest Observations - May 2012

 

 

Humiliating the Bears: Scepticism and Disbelief during the Greatest Market Rally

 

The world might be very different today, but there are some striking similarities with the negative mood of the 1970s - 1980s, and the decade equity market rally that followed! 


Investments Office, Ronald Weber

 

Asset Management

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1 month in 10 snapshots
Europe, the weak link in global growth, still accounts for 1/5 of global GDP and is the 2nd export market for the emerging countries’ manufactured goods.
Syz Asset Management, 7 May 2012

 

Market Outlook 
The arrival of spring coincides with a kind of return to reality.
Syz Asset Management, 5 April 2012

 

Barclays Investment Committee Report
The fundamental case for Japan is good, with government efforts to weaken the yen and spur economic activity. However, technical analysis does not support an allocation.
Barclays Funds & Advisory March 2012

 

 

Investment Thoughts

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The Yen's Looming Day of Reckoning
"A yen collapse will impact China and South Korea most, just like in 1998."
Caixin Online, Andy Xie 23.03.2012

 

The Economic Impact of a Lone Business Jet

A very thorough description of the positive economic impact and multiplication-effect related to a single business jet

Jeremy R.C. Cox, 2012

 

The worst financial books timings ever !
From "Dow 40'000" in June 1999 to the "Great Depression Ahead" in January 2009, and "Why the US Real Estate Boom will not Bust" in 2006!

Investments Office, 2012

 

 

 

Family Office Research

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From Single-Family Office to Multifamily Office
The Journal of Wealth Management, Spring 2010

 

25 Best Practices of Multi-Generational Families
The odds of sustaining wealth across generations are as low as 30%, but less than 3% of these failures stem from poor estate planning and poor investment returns.
GenSpring Family Offices, 2009

 

Reinvigorating the Investment Committee:
Introducing the Investment Committee Operating Manual
Greycourt White Paper, 2003
 

 

 

Pension Funds Research

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Can Large Pension Funds Beat the Market?

Asset Allocation, Market Timing, Security Selection and the Limits of Liquidity
Working Paper, September 2011
 
Is Bigger Better?

Size and Performance in Pension Plan Management
Rotman International Centre for Pension Management, July, 2011

 

Portfolio allocation for public pension funds
Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, April 2011

 

 


 

 

 
 
 

 

 

Latest Comments - Categorized per Investment Topic

 
 
Macro Observations

The Yen's Looming Day of Reckoning - Japan looks set to depress the value of the yen to boost trade – how China must brace itself for the impact
"A yen collapse will impact China and South Korea most, just like in 1998. It will trigger substantial weakness in their industries. If a banking system succumbs, the shock can bring down an entire economy, as South Korea's experience in 1998 demonstrates."
Caixin Online , Andy Xie 03.23.2012

The Fed’s Dual Mandate Responsibilities: Maintaining Credibility during a Time of Immense Economic Challenges
Rather than fighting the inflation ghosts of the 1970s, I am more worried about repeating the mistakes of the 1930s.
Chicago Fed , Speech delivered by President Charles L. Evans, October 2011

QE Coming of Age
"...central banks have, through expanding their own balance sheets, in effect liquefied the private sector’s balance sheet and taken the unwanted assets off it."
Morgan Stanley, The Global Monetary Analyst, February 1, 2012 , Spyros Andreopoulos
more...
Market Desk

These PIIGS Went to Market
For the two PIIGS still going to debt market (Italy and Spain, the others have been bailed out), where are we now? Debt auctions so far have largely gone just fine, with ample coverage and falling yields.
Fisher Investments MarketMinder , 03.02.2012

January Jonesing
When January winds down, there’s one thing you can usually count on: A stream of articles touting the so-called January effect, which claims January’s returns will set the year’s course. Yet today, with one week till month’s end, a quick Internet search yielded only one.
Fisher Investments MarketMinder , 24.01.2012

A Web of Misperceptions
A look around the web at some common misperceptions—and some alternative perspective to consider.
Fisher Investments MarketMinder , 02.01.2012
more...
Asset Management

1 month in 10 snapshots
Europe, the weak link in global growth, still accounts for 1/5 of global GDP and is the second export market for the emerging countries’ manufactured goods.
Syz Asset Management, 7 May 2012

Market Outlook
After a first quarter marked by a combination of favourable factors, the arrival of spring coincides with a kind of return to reality. A reality that is probably less gloomy than last summer’s, but still less pleasing than the beginning-of-year hopes may have led one to believe.
Syz Asset Management, 5 April 2012

1 month in 10 snapshots
The trend now appears to have stabilized in the developed economies with a “moderate” recession for the euro zone as a whole, low but positive growth in Japan and a more encouraging trend in the United States.
Syz Asset Management, 5 April 2012
more...
Markets in History

La Grèce Contemporaine
Observations on Greece's Public finances from 1858. Some things never change!
Troisième Edition, Paris 1858 , Edmond About

Some of the Worst Book Timings
From "Dow 40'000" in June 1999 to the "Great Depression Ahead" in January 2009, and "Why the Real Estate Boom will not Bust" in 2006 !
InvestmentsOffice.com , Ronald Weber

An American History Lesson for Europe
You can draw your own conclusions and parallels with Europe today, and the U.S. Federal Government bailout of the States in 1789, and its refusal to do so again in the 1840s !
WSJ, February 3, 2012 , Thomas Sargent
more...
Beyond Finance

Forecasting the Improbable
Typically, when thinking up extreme events, the practitioner draws from past experience or historical events that have had a material impact on financial markets. (...) Things become more complicated when the event in question has never occurred in the past or occurred such a long time ago that there is little material to recollect its impact.
Lobnek Wealth Management, Newsletter, April 2012 , Altug Ulkumen, CFA, Partner & Chief Investment Officer

The Economic Impact of a Lone Business Jet
In those times of private-aviation bashing, here is a very thorough description of the positive economic impact and multiplication-effect related to a single business jet.
, Jeremy Cox, January 2012

The Rise of Consumption Equality
It used to be so cool to be wealthy (...) Now it's hard to swing a cat without hitting yet another diatribe against income inequality. People sleep in tents to protest that others are too damn wealthy.
WSJ, January 03, 2012 , Andy Kessler
more...
Quotes On the Fly

What is the euro but an attempt to impose the same exchange rate, and interest rate, for different nations who have no willingness to live together?
Gavekal, February 2012

No One Is Expecting A Big Trend. That’s Bullish.
Hit the Refresh Button , Ken Fisher, 08.02.2012

In short, central banks have, through expanding their own balance sheets, in effect liquefied the private sector's balance sheet and taken the unwanted assets off it.
That is, central banks have used their balance sheets to act as a buffer, thus performing a crucial intertemporal stabilisation function.
Morgan Stanley, February 2012
more...


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Quotes & Charts

 

 

"The euro is like a modern day gold standard where the burden of adjustment falls on the weaker countries"

Variant Perception, Feb. 2012

 

"No One Is Expecting A Big Trend. That’s Bullish."
Hit the Refresh Button
Ken Fisher, February 2012

 

"Effectively, the ECB is taking the dysfunctional Eurozone interbank market on to its balance sheet."
Crossborder Capital, Feb. 2012

 

Creative Destruction Chart:

History of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1896-2010

 

 

 

 

Invitations & Events

 

 

Zurich, Switzerland

 

Luncheon Invitation: Why Paper Money has always ended in tears

Barclays Luncheon on the future shape of our monetary system


9 May 2012

12:00 - 13:30

Hotel Park Hyatt, Zurich

Barclays Funds and Advisory

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